Trying to live in the here and now

Over the past week I have seen an inordinate amount of predictions regarding the 2009 baseball season and the Minnesota Twins. All of them are predicated on something, I just have no idea what.

Baseball Prospectus predicted that the Twins would once again finish neck-and-neck with the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, with the Twins sneaking out a third-place finish with a record of 77-85. The formula used to figure that record is certainly a dense one - and I would never in a million years pretend that I have any right to call an esteemed publication like theirs bullshit, but lets be honest, it’s bullshit. But it isn’t just Baseball Prospectus, it’s every prediction-laden, plan-laying, crystal ball seeing, tarot card reading, sports website in America.

While they computed the 77-85 record the Prospectus wrote that the prospects for a successful 2009 Twins season boiled down to, “If the Twins can find a way to shore up one of the league’s weaker offenses, they’re also in the hunt.”

Now, what exactly is meant by “weaker” evades me. The Twins in 2008 hit the second fewest home runs in the American League, which is weak, but also managed to score the third most runs in the American League, which is not weak. They have retained most of that lineup and added a power-hitting third baseman, so what gives, what makes them a weak offensive team? Or what is it that Baseball Prospectus knows about the Twins lineup in 2009 that will make it less effective than 2008?

I’m not saying that they’re wrong, or that the opportunistic Twins offense - which thrived in 2008 by hitting an ungodly .305 with runners in scoring position (which led the league by nearly .20 points) - won’t fall back to earth. Still, while their offense may stumble in certain areas could they not just as easily thrive in others? Could Carlos Gomez hit 15 home runs? Could Delmon Young hit 15? Could Cuddyer drive in 90 runs? Will I die in a car crash?

See, for me the most shocking moment of the Twins 2008 season was when Adam Everett pulled a fake-bunt two RBI double against the Rays in mid-September. Now, for 99 percent of the season Adam Everett’s offense sat comfortably within its predicted range, but that doesn’t mean that Adam Everett or any person or player or animate object can’t at any given moment, do whatever in the hell he/she/it wants on this earth.

So, Baseball Prospectus has the Twins in third place, that’s their prediction. In 2008 they predicted a fourth place finish for the Twins and that the Mets and Yankees would both win their divisions. In fact they predicted only one division winner accurately, the Cubs, and no one cares. No one should.

It’s always important to remember that Nostradamus predicted damn near nothing right, and neither will Baseball Prospectus, and neither will I, and neither will you.

Predictions are entirely pointless. But the Internet was becoming more and more prediction and data analysis friendly long before the whole Nate Silver electoral college thing blew the shit out of the water, and now the statistical and data analysis revolution has seemingly left people numbers crazy.

Nowhere is this statistical revolution more belabored, more mind-numbing, than in baseball where analysts have basically taken a childish distraction and somewhat cerebral and athletic entertainment and turned it into methodically broken down zones of analysis.

And while the Jamesian school has grown with each passing year and his influence is without a doubt earned and respected it is important to remember that while his analysis can be viewed as predictive it is purely reflective. Now, a collection of data gathered over the course of years and years of studying a players tendency in the field, on the mound, or at the plate can be insanely effective in the course of a game and can hand an opposing team an advantage when it comes to defending or attacking that player - it is still anything but certain.

It’s funny to me that the more and more uncertain the world becomes, the harder it becomes to even understand the things that are happening in the world in real time, people tend to become more and more concerned with trying to see what will happen in the future. We can no longer be immersed in the event - be it a game, the stock market, the actions of a president, or a night out with friends - we have to first build up the anticipation, the pregame show, the predictions of the outcome, who will win? who will lose? what will it all be like, in the future, so soon from now?

“Well Jimmy, when the game is over in three hours what do you think the major storyline will be?”

“Oh, that’s easy Stu…”

“Sarah can you imagine how much fun we’re going to be having in a couple of hours? We are going to be soooo hammered and having soooo much fun…”

“I know, like, I can’t even imagine how much fun that will be!”

“Well what will the first 100 days in office hold for President Obama?”

“I can tell you that Glenn, in fact I have here a calendar with the exact details of what will most likely be happening minute to minute during the first 100 days President Obama is in office.”

And before you know it the event is over and briefly we can look back over it and consider what has happened, consider the “importance” and wonder what went wrong with our predictions? What went wrong with our plans? Were we right, were we wrong, does it matter, could it matter, will it matter? The event is over, the night is past, and we move on to something new, some new thing somewhere down the road in some distant space. We will always need that new thing out in our future to fill our curiosity of what it (meaning our life) will be like when that happens.

But all of this star-gazing remains pointless because there is no such thing as the perfect prediction. And even if Silver can accurately predict the outcome of 49 of 50 states in the 2008 general election and nail the popular vote down within something like 1.1 percentage points, there will always be that one state, that 1.1 percent, that Adam Everett fake-bunt game-winning double. There will always be life and it will always be a mystery.

With that in mind here are our:

2009 non-baseball related Minnesota Twins predictions!

Delmon Young will get a new car, with the wood-trim package and black leather.

Justin Morneau will announce the arrival of a new child to earth, it may or may not be his child.

Norm Coleman will quietly attend a Twins game, no one will know.

There will be pranks in the clubhouse.

Joe Mauer will stay single, but a new love interest will come into his life. It will be her radiant brown hair which draws in the batting champ.

There will be team slogans and cheers.

A few confused fans will go to Target Field thinking the new stadium is already open, will find construction.

Nick Punto will be married.

The economy will be talked about by Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven as it relates to Twins tickets sales, they will mess up either an essential figure or a rudimentary economic concept.

Bill Smith will hold a press conference.

Carlos Gomez will have a dream.

The lights in Minneapolis will flicker on near dusk.

America will prosper.

God will love.

You will be a success.

2009 prediction: 92-70 (First place)